In this insightful, spotlight episode of the Passive Investing from Left Field podcast, host Chad Ackerman, sits down with J Scott, a seasoned real estate investor, author, and co-host of the Drunk Real Estate podcast. Scott shares his valuable perspective on the current economic climate and its impact on the commercial real estate market, providing actionable advice for limited partner (LP) investors looking to make informed decisions in an unstable environment.
The conversation begins with an update on the current state of the economy, highlighting the recent inflation data and its potential consequences for interest rates. Scott emphasizes that the Federal Reserve’s decision to backtrack on their previous statements regarding rate cuts in 2023 has led to a shift in sentiment among commercial real estate investors. The optimism that had been building up in anticipation of lower interest rates has begun to dissipate, which could have a ripple effect throughout the industry.
Scott delves into the intricacies of measuring economic sentiment, discussing the difference between traditional polls and actual consumer spending patterns. Despite some concerning economic indicators, retail sales data suggests that people continue to spend money at a significant rate. This persistent consumer spending contributes to ongoing inflation, which in turn influences the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process regarding interest rates.
For LP investors, Scott provides valuable guidance on navigating the current market conditions. He distinguishes between two types of investments: those already committed and new opportunities. When considering new investments, Scott advises investors to exercise caution and conduct thorough due diligence. While good deals may still be available, it is crucial to ensure that operators are adequately conservative in their underwriting and proforma, taking into account the likelihood of delayed rate cuts and the increased risk associated with floating-rate loans.
Regarding existing investments, Scott expresses concern about the potential wave of capital calls that may occur as operators grapple with the reality of prolonged high interest rates. He shares his personal experience of receiving two capital calls in a single week, highlighting the challenges faced by operators who may have been holding out hope for a more favorable interest rate environment. Additionally, Scott predicts that the current market conditions could lead to lower transaction volumes and fewer selling opportunities in the near future, potentially putting pressure on deals that are already in a precarious position.
To mitigate these risks, Scott strongly advocates for diversification across multiple dimensions. He encourages LP investors to spread their investments across different operators, locations, asset classes, and exit strategies. By doing so, investors can minimize the impact of any single underperforming deal and allow their wins to offset potential losses. While diversification may lead to lower overall returns, Scott emphasizes that in the current economic climate, prioritizing risk management over high returns is a prudent approach.
Throughout the episode, Scott stresses the importance of staying informed about market trends and economic indicators. He anticipates that the next three months will provide crucial data points that could indicate the direction in which the economy is heading. By closely monitoring these developments, investors can make more informed decisions and adapt their strategies accordingly.
As the conversation draws to a close, Scott reiterates the need for investors to buckle up and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride in the coming months. While the uncertainty surrounding interest rates and economic conditions persists, he remains optimistic that the next few months will bring greater clarity and help investors chart a course forward.
This episode of the Passive Investing from Left Field podcast offers invaluable insights for LP investors seeking to navigate the volatile commercial real estate market. J Scott’s expertise and practical advice serve as a compass for investors looking to make informed decisions, manage risk, and seize opportunities in an ever-changing economic landscape. By embracing diversification, conducting thorough due diligence, and staying attuned to market trends, investors can position themselves for success in the face of uncertainty.
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